No, I don’t foresee a lot of crashes, spins, or collisions. What I do see is some creative race strategies by some teams as races at Michigan usually turn into fuel mileage marathons and how teams handle it depends on where they are in the points.

Obviously a team that is trying to stay in the top 12 in points so they can be in The Chase will probably not stretch out their fuel mileage to try and win the race because if they run out of gas with just a few laps left they will finish low in the order – probably no better than 20th place which would hurt them greatly in the points race, after all the higher you finish, the more points you get.

While on the other hand, you might find some teams willing to gamble and roll the dice on their fuel mileage. Those teams trying to get into the top 35 in points so they can get those guaranteed starting spots for each race may try to stay out for the win because if they win they will get 3-4 times the amount of points they usually do for finishing well in the pack like they usually do.

Keeping those sponsorship dollars, and in some cases your job, by guaranteeing your starting spot for the next race is well worth the risk at this point in the season, just ask Michael McDowell (00) who caused a huge wreck last week at Watkins Glen trying to gain more positions on the track so he could get his team in the top 35 and keep his job. McDowell eventually finished 25th, but did not get his team in the top 35 and has been ‘temporarily’ replaced for the next three races by veteran driver Mike Skinner.

Watch Skinner this weekend in that double zero car, as he races well at Michigan and if he feels he has a chance to get his first points win at the Sprint Cup level you know he would wreck his own mother to do it. I remember listening to Skinner’s radio frequency at this race in 1999 when he was Dale Earnhardt’s teammate at Richard Childress Racing. Skinner was in turns 3 and 4 with his car literally sideways when he keyed the mic and yelled, “Yehaaaaw” over the radio. He then got the car pointed in the right direction, kept on going, and didn’t even loose a spot. He won himself a new fan that day that’s for sure.

Another person who might stay out and gamble that they did their fuel calculations right is current point leader Kyle Busch (18). Why would he do that you ask? Simple, the 10 bonus points for winning that he gets headed into The Chase.

When The Chase starts the top 12 drivers point totals are effectively wiped out, and they start all over again even for the last 10 races, except for the bonus points they have earned for any wins they might have had in the previous 26 races.

Kyle Busch (18) already has 8 wins, so that means he already has 80 points more than everyone else who hasn’t won any races yet like Jeff Gordon (24) or Tony Stewart (20). If Busch gets another win or two before The Chase he will begin it with a huge lead, and that is why he might gamble with his fuel mileage this weekend – he wants to win that Championship and those bonus points just might prove to be the thing that does it for him.

Also, watch out for any car that comes from the Roush-Fenway organization (6, 16, 16, and 99) as they have traditionally run well at Michigan, and have been getting pretty good gas mileage this season. This might even be the race that David Ragan (6) gets his first win at, as he finished 8th here back in June.

All of this is depended on the weather of course. It rained so bad last year that they had to run the race on Tuesday - two days after it was scheduled – and with all of the rain we’ve been having this year I’m glad I didn’t get tickets for this year’s event.