Submitted by NASCAR Ranting and Raving Blog
No, not ‘The Race For The Chase”, but “The Race For The Place” as in 35th place. Everyone is talking about the 12 Chase Contenders, so I’m going to talk about the battle for the last guaranteed starting spot, 35th place. There is a battle heating up for that position as well, and who might the survivors be? Well let’s look at the contenders.
The difference between 29th and 36th in the Owner’s Standings is only 287. I know you’re saying 278 is a ton of points, but Kurt Busch made almost as much as that up in less than 10 races to get into the Chase. Also, the difference between 35th and 38th is only 233 points. So, the gap between 28th and 38th is 510 points, but everyone is trying to stay at least 35th in the points to get the guaranteed starting spot for not just the remainder of the year but for the first 5 races of next year as well - unless NASCAR changes this format over Christmas.
I’ll start my analysis with 28th and work my way down:
28th - Robby Gordon (7): a one car team with a hot head owner/driver who is on probation. Good thing he is on probation, that just might be his saving grace as the probation just might keep him cool headed enough not to do anything stupid and jeopardize his top 35 place. Barring stupidity, Gordon will stay in the top 35.
29th - Mike Menard (15): If he doesn’t get any of Jr’s left over engines he should stay in the top 35, but if he gets the engine woes Jr has had lately he is in deep doo-doo and his guaranteed top 35 will become a guaranteed top 40.
30th - David Gilliland (38): How has this organization floundered this year (and previous years too). If he keeps his average finish of 26.3 going until the end of the year he should stay in the top 35 and that is just what Doug Yates needs, especially if they become the ‘unofficial’ 5th team of Rousch/Fenway.
31st - Jeff Green (66): Has had a tough year, but they have had moments of glory - well about as much as a second tier team can experience. Jeff is a proven Busch Series Champion and with that experience in his back pocket he should pull through and stay in the top 35, but this team has the potential of falling into a rut that they might not be able to get out of. The first 2 or 3 races of the Chase will tell the tale for this team.
32nd - Ricky Rudd/Kenny Wallace/Anyone Else? (88): Who ever thought at the beginning of the year that Rudd would be fighting to stay in the top 35? I figured he would be anywhere from 15th to 20th. This team is in serious trouble, especially if Rudd doesn’t come back soon. Not that Kenny Wallace is a bad driver, but Rudd has been with the team since the start of the season so he and the team know each other better and they can work it through to the end of the year. If Rudd comes back and can perform to the best of his abilities prior to his accident they will stay in the top 35 (barely), otherwise they might be toast.
33rd - Johnny Sauter (70): Good driver in a crummy car, and teammate to Jeff Green. Johnny just came off a great finish at Richmond (top 10) and if his crew chief Booty Barker can keep the team focused enough they just might stay in the top 35.
34th - Kyle Petty (45): I have serious doubts that he can stay in the top 35. I’m not saying that Kyle isn’t a good driver, I just think that the car that Kyle drives out on the track isn’t that good. For some reason that 45 car hasn’t run too well about 95% of the year with only 1 top 5 and 1 top 10 finish and a 28.4 average finish. This is going to be an up-hill battle at best to keep that 45 car in the top 35.
35th - Kenny Schrader/Bill Elliott/Boris Said (21): Kenny Schrader is back in the car this weekend at New Hampshire, but if he performs lousy don’t expect to see him in the car after that. Bill Elliot still has 5 of his Championship Provisionals left and he will use them to keep the Wood Bros car in “The Race For The Place”. I think the only reason Schrader is back in the car is because Bill does not want to run on fast tracks if at all possible, especially Talladega, and can you blame him? He is supposed to be retired after all. If they make the last 10 races of the season the 21 car should stay in the top 35, but it really comes down to whether or not Bill decides to race, or not to race, at the fast tracks.
36th - Dave Blaney (22): I don’t know. I think the only way they make the Place is if they run consistent and one of the teams like the 21 or the 45 sputters. I don’t think they can race their way into the Place by themselves, they need a little help.
37th - Scott Riggs (10): See Dave Blaney.
38th - Brian Vickers (83): Ooow, a real dark horse contender here folks. If he can qualify for each and every race, and keep his nose clean and out of trouble, he can, and should, race his way into the Place. He has proven that he can run with the big boys and if it weren’t for bad luck this year he wouldn’t have had any luck at all. All he has to do is qualify, easier said than done in a Toyota this year though.
Photo Credit: ledgermotorsports.com
